GeoVeu · EU-centered geo-economic watch calendar

China official manufacturing PMI: October 2026

31 October 2026 (date announced) · macro statistics · confidence: confirmed · status: scheduled · impact 4/5 · EU relevance 5/5

Why it matters

The official PMI is the first monthly read on Chinese factory activity, and China is both the demand side for European machinery, chemicals and autos and the supply side for the clean-tech and electronics inputs Europe depends on. A sub-50 print signals weaker EU export orders and more Chinese overcapacity pushed toward European markets; a strong print firms commodity prices and euro-area imported inflation.

What to watch

• Headline manufacturing PMI versus 50 and versus consensus — direction matters more than the level.
• New export orders sub-index: the cleanest early signal for EU-China trade flows and for diversion pressure into European markets.
• Output prices and input prices: deflationary pressure feeds straight into EU import prices and the ECB’s imported-inflation read.
• Non-manufacturing and composite PMIs released alongside, plus any Caixin divergence (private/export-heavy sample versus state-heavy NBS sample).

Sources

• NBS China 2026 regular press release calendar

Themes: Politics, Economy, Trade · Regions: China, EU, Global · Actors: National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, European industrial exporters, Commodity and euro FX markets

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Page regenerated 2026-09-12. Dates move, official pages change and releases are revised. Treat entries as pointers into their sources, not the final word. Machine-readable: llms.txt.

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